Haftanın Kitabı 22: Global Catastrophes and Trends - The Next Fifty Years
Bu haftanın kitabı, 2008 yılında yayınlanan Vaclac Smil'in Global Catastrophes and Trends - The Next Fifty Years adlı kitabıdır.
Product Description: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change--in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change--and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.
Review: "I think Smil should probably be set as homework for every Member of Parliament, and there will be a test later..." Dick Pountain The Political Quarterly "At home alike in both the natural and human sciences, the author gives an incisive analysis of the way change occurs both in terms of unpredictable discontinuities and gradually unfolding trends. His treatment of trends over the next fifty years is especially interesting, and his pages on America's 'retreat' informed and convincing. Smil offers not predictions but a balanced, holistic treatment of what may be ahead for humanity. Anyone interested in history, demography, economics, environmentalism, or risk analysis, along with globalization, will find this a 'must' book."--Bruce Mazlish, Professor of History Emeritus, MIT
Detailed review: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years, by Vaclav Smil. 2008. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. 307 + xi. ISBN 978-0-262-19586-7, $29.95.
Global Catastrophes and Trends is a recent book from the prodigious multilingual Canadian researcher, synthesizer, and author, Vaclav Smil. Many readers will be familiar with his previous work on energy, pollution, ecology, and China, much of which informs this volume on issues faced by humankind in the next 50 years. Drawing upon a large and varied literature (36 bibliography pages, perhaps 700 items), Smil divides his book into four components: fatal discontinuities, unfolding trends, environmental change, and dealing with risk and uncertainty. The first section deals with low probability/high impact events such as asteroid collisions and mega volcanoes, as well as pandemics, violence, and, briefly, imaginable surprises including nuclear war. The section on evolving trends documents energy transitions and changes to the global order, where Smil seems to enjoy the gradual decline of the United States and ascendance of China. Evolving environmental trends warrant separate treatment—global warming, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, antibiotic resistance, and ecosystem services among them. Finally, Smil provides an overview of relative, perceived, and absolute risk, prescribing no solutions but urging attention to what may emerge as real threats, observing that “catastrophes and endings are also opportunities and beginnings” (p. 253). There is some original research in this book, but its considerable value is the synthesis of kinds, magnitudes, and probabilities of different threats into a comparable framework. The scale of analysis is “global civilization” (p. 251), with lesser reference to other personal and family concerns such as children, accidents, safety, health, employment, and poverty, which in cross-cultural studies of popular threat perception have been shown to be more salient than global issues, regardless of awareness. Value added in Smil’s synthesis includes juxtaposition of issues with interesting graphics focusing on OM (order of magnitude) and use of logarithmic scales. Smil brings a careful, analytical, and quantitative perspective in comparing threats, in many cases having to rework data from multiple sources into similar measures. There is also an edge to Smil’s writing: humor, chagrin, opinion, even contempt make this as much a scientific essay as analysis. Among graphics this reviewer found particularly interesting were those showing volcanic eruptions and deaths (Figure 2.10, p. 28); magnitude of wars (Figure 2.19, p. 51); deaths from terrorism compared to other causes (Figure 2.24, p. 65); and global flows of renewable energy (Figure 3.4, p. 83), although strictly speaking the last shows energy flow resources (wind, tides, solar radiation) not renewable energy resources (biomass). Figure 5.3 (p. 227) is equally interesting, a log-log graph of “fatalities per person per hour of exposure vs. average annual number of fatalities.” It would not be surprising if many of Smil’s graphics end up in classroom presentations. [] Issues such as these should not seriously detract from the Global Catastrophes and Trends core message: change is inevitable and sometimes anticipated. Understanding relative fear, measuring the real odds, thinking and acting rationally, taking opportunities that already exist, and using coping strategies—all suggest that our demise is not inevitable. Nevertheless, do not just sit there, worry! [Review by C. Gregory Knight]
Vaclac Smil resmi www sayfası: http://www.vaclavsmil.com/
İndirme bağlantısı
Review: "I think Smil should probably be set as homework for every Member of Parliament, and there will be a test later..." Dick Pountain The Political Quarterly "At home alike in both the natural and human sciences, the author gives an incisive analysis of the way change occurs both in terms of unpredictable discontinuities and gradually unfolding trends. His treatment of trends over the next fifty years is especially interesting, and his pages on America's 'retreat' informed and convincing. Smil offers not predictions but a balanced, holistic treatment of what may be ahead for humanity. Anyone interested in history, demography, economics, environmentalism, or risk analysis, along with globalization, will find this a 'must' book."--Bruce Mazlish, Professor of History Emeritus, MIT
Detailed review: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years, by Vaclav Smil. 2008. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. 307 + xi. ISBN 978-0-262-19586-7, $29.95.
Global Catastrophes and Trends is a recent book from the prodigious multilingual Canadian researcher, synthesizer, and author, Vaclav Smil. Many readers will be familiar with his previous work on energy, pollution, ecology, and China, much of which informs this volume on issues faced by humankind in the next 50 years. Drawing upon a large and varied literature (36 bibliography pages, perhaps 700 items), Smil divides his book into four components: fatal discontinuities, unfolding trends, environmental change, and dealing with risk and uncertainty. The first section deals with low probability/high impact events such as asteroid collisions and mega volcanoes, as well as pandemics, violence, and, briefly, imaginable surprises including nuclear war. The section on evolving trends documents energy transitions and changes to the global order, where Smil seems to enjoy the gradual decline of the United States and ascendance of China. Evolving environmental trends warrant separate treatment—global warming, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, antibiotic resistance, and ecosystem services among them. Finally, Smil provides an overview of relative, perceived, and absolute risk, prescribing no solutions but urging attention to what may emerge as real threats, observing that “catastrophes and endings are also opportunities and beginnings” (p. 253). There is some original research in this book, but its considerable value is the synthesis of kinds, magnitudes, and probabilities of different threats into a comparable framework. The scale of analysis is “global civilization” (p. 251), with lesser reference to other personal and family concerns such as children, accidents, safety, health, employment, and poverty, which in cross-cultural studies of popular threat perception have been shown to be more salient than global issues, regardless of awareness. Value added in Smil’s synthesis includes juxtaposition of issues with interesting graphics focusing on OM (order of magnitude) and use of logarithmic scales. Smil brings a careful, analytical, and quantitative perspective in comparing threats, in many cases having to rework data from multiple sources into similar measures. There is also an edge to Smil’s writing: humor, chagrin, opinion, even contempt make this as much a scientific essay as analysis. Among graphics this reviewer found particularly interesting were those showing volcanic eruptions and deaths (Figure 2.10, p. 28); magnitude of wars (Figure 2.19, p. 51); deaths from terrorism compared to other causes (Figure 2.24, p. 65); and global flows of renewable energy (Figure 3.4, p. 83), although strictly speaking the last shows energy flow resources (wind, tides, solar radiation) not renewable energy resources (biomass). Figure 5.3 (p. 227) is equally interesting, a log-log graph of “fatalities per person per hour of exposure vs. average annual number of fatalities.” It would not be surprising if many of Smil’s graphics end up in classroom presentations. [] Issues such as these should not seriously detract from the Global Catastrophes and Trends core message: change is inevitable and sometimes anticipated. Understanding relative fear, measuring the real odds, thinking and acting rationally, taking opportunities that already exist, and using coping strategies—all suggest that our demise is not inevitable. Nevertheless, do not just sit there, worry! [Review by C. Gregory Knight]
Vaclac Smil resmi www sayfası: http://www.vaclavsmil.com/
İndirme bağlantısı
yazışmak üzere, neşeli okumalar dilerim.
26 nisan 2013 cuma, Antalya, Türkiye
Harun Taner <harun.taner.antalya@gmail.com>
